Knowns and unknowns.

Why projects never go as expected.

If you’re like me, you’re a big fan of former Secretary of Defense and architect of the Iraq War Donald Rumsfeld.

OH MY GOSH I’M TOTALLY JOKING! I am not a fan.

While he was architecting all his pain and suffering, he was criticized for saying something that made perfect sense to me.

He said that at the beginning of a military operation there are known knowns, unknown knowns and unknown unknowns. The press derided the comment as a word salad.

Anyway, this made perfect sense to me and it still tempers my enthusiasm and optimism at the start of a project.

Okay, let’s say this Turtle wants to try the delightful and rewarding world of writing and illustrating children’s books. He has some colored pencils, a pad and a positive, can-do attitude.

Known Knowns.

Turtle is excited for the riches and fame, but understands it takes a bit of work before the world falls in love with his personal brand of whimsy.

The known knowns are the tasks, trials and tribulations he is aware of on his journey to his yacht. Can he write a good story? Can he draw good pictures? Can he shoehorn talking about his dream into unrelated casual conversation?

Known Unknowns.

These are the things Turtle is anticipating, but not sure if they will ever materialize. Will anyone like his story or illustrations? Will it ever get published? Will the yacht store have the yacht he wants in stock or will they have to order one?

Unknown Unknowns.

These are the things Turtle couldn’t anticipate. In this case Turtle got a picture book deal for many millions of dollars like most authors. Also like most authors, he waited until the absolute last minute before starting and the deadline was rapidly approaching. He asked for extension after extension, but things took way longer than he guessed. It was down to the wire and then BAM! Strep throat! Too bad, get to work! Don’t ask how I came up with such a specific example, I just made it up.

Turtle swears he will never get himself into that situation again. He doesn’t. Next time, it’s down to the wire and the power goes out in his pond-side studio.

So what does all this mean?

Pad your time.

Pad your time estimates especially for tasks you’ve never done before. Yesterday my wife got rear ended after dropping me off. She’s fine, but the car was damaged. So I spent most of the afternoon wondering why the universe hates me and how I have it worse than pretty much anyone else. So work was shot. This morning we brought it over to the auto body shop for an estimate and I didn’t get into the studio until noon. Then I had a little snack. So I didn’t start working until about 12:30. This afternoon I take my frames and prescription to my glasses guy. So the day is shot besides talking to you guys. I couldn’t have anticipated any of this besides the glasses and the snack. I planned on working on the substack FOR YOU GUYS all day long.

Padding pros and cons.

Different parts of my brain have different relationships with the padding. The reasonable part is comforted by the adequate schedule. The part that needs a deadline has a hard time initiating a task that isn’t due for a while and sees the padding as a giant mattress. That’s not true, the mean part of my brain things I’m lazy, but I am always working. When I think I have plenty of time, I forget that project and work on something that’s not a priority. Just recently I put off painting my studio because it would take a week. I thought drawing the book that’s due in a couple months is a better idea. I’m a pillar of something good.

Okay. Let me know in the comments if this makes sense to you guys or if there’s anything else you’d like me to talk about. I have to go get glasses.